Publicação
The market response to the Polish presidential election
| Resumo: | This paper examines how financial markets priced the narrow election victory of right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki as President of Poland on 1 June 2025. Using an event-study framework and a Carhart four-factor model, this study analyzes daily returns for 327 stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The average‑firm Total portfolio records negative abnormal returns around the election, consistent with a mild adverse political shock, although the effect is statistically weak. The reaction is highly heterogeneous across sectors: Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Renewable Energy firms underperform, while Mining and Oil and Gas companies fare relatively better. The available evidence does not support the hypothesis that abnormal returns are observed for publicly listed firms with majority or minority state ownership compared to purely private firms. The findings highlight how cohabitation and policy uncertainty jointly shape the cross-sectional pricing of political risk in an emerging European market. |
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| Autores principais: | Aretin, Johannes Friedrich Michael Franziskus Freiherr von |
| Assunto: | Event study Poland Election Political risk Policy uncertainty Warsaw stock exchange Industry analysis Cohabitation Market model Carhart four-factor model Estudo de eventos Polónia Eleição Risco político Incerteza política Bolsa de Varsóvia Análise setorial Coabitação Modelo de mercado Modelo de quatro fatores de Carhart |
| Ano: | 2026 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso embargado |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
| Resumo: | This paper examines how financial markets priced the narrow election victory of right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki as President of Poland on 1 June 2025. Using an event-study framework and a Carhart four-factor model, this study analyzes daily returns for 327 stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The average‑firm Total portfolio records negative abnormal returns around the election, consistent with a mild adverse political shock, although the effect is statistically weak. The reaction is highly heterogeneous across sectors: Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Renewable Energy firms underperform, while Mining and Oil and Gas companies fare relatively better. The available evidence does not support the hypothesis that abnormal returns are observed for publicly listed firms with majority or minority state ownership compared to purely private firms. The findings highlight how cohabitation and policy uncertainty jointly shape the cross-sectional pricing of political risk in an emerging European market. |
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