Publicação
Economic growth and environmental degradation : an analysis on GDPpc and CO2pc emissions
| Resumo: | The continuous growth in GHG emissions derived from human activity has stirred the debate on if it is possible to combine an ever-growing economy with sustainability values, environmental equality and justice. Whether climate change should be tackled from an eco-modernist perspective, or an economic de-growth perspective is important to help define future policy. Therefore, this MFW aims at estimating forecasted values of the GDPpc and CO2pc and conclude whether the theoretical framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve holds for these series in a selected group of countries. With this objective, an empirical analysis was made on both series where it became apparent how big fluctuations in these variables might be related to the economies dependency on the industry and export of fossil fuels. Moreover, three different models frameworks were applied to these series, with all presenting evidence on good predictive capabilities. Through cross validation, a model was select that would best fit to the data, being that forall series the chosen model was an ARIMA. The forecasted values from these models are aligned with the perspective that is drawn from past values, but do not corroborate the EKC hypothesis, with an average increase in CO2pc emissions predicted for the USA, for example. Thus, allying strong environmental policy to prosperity and economic and social development should be of greater focus to countries worldwide. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Tarrafa, Ingride Stouge |
| Assunto: | Economic growth CO2 emissions Environmental Kuznets Curve Crescimento económico Emissões de CO2 Curva Ambiental de Kuznets |
| Ano: | 2021 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade de Lisboa |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Resumo: | The continuous growth in GHG emissions derived from human activity has stirred the debate on if it is possible to combine an ever-growing economy with sustainability values, environmental equality and justice. Whether climate change should be tackled from an eco-modernist perspective, or an economic de-growth perspective is important to help define future policy. Therefore, this MFW aims at estimating forecasted values of the GDPpc and CO2pc and conclude whether the theoretical framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve holds for these series in a selected group of countries. With this objective, an empirical analysis was made on both series where it became apparent how big fluctuations in these variables might be related to the economies dependency on the industry and export of fossil fuels. Moreover, three different models frameworks were applied to these series, with all presenting evidence on good predictive capabilities. Through cross validation, a model was select that would best fit to the data, being that forall series the chosen model was an ARIMA. The forecasted values from these models are aligned with the perspective that is drawn from past values, but do not corroborate the EKC hypothesis, with an average increase in CO2pc emissions predicted for the USA, for example. Thus, allying strong environmental policy to prosperity and economic and social development should be of greater focus to countries worldwide. |
|---|
Atividades financiadas
Não foram encontrados projetos financiados.