Publicação
Climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation implications for the submediterranean oak Quercus pyrenaica Willd.
| Resumo: | Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaicaWilld., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change. |
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| Autores principais: | Passos, Isabel |
| Outros Autores: | Vila-Viçosa , Carlos; Gonçalves , João; Figueiredo, Albano; Ribeiro, M.M.A. |
| Assunto: | Quercus pyrenaica Climate change Species distribution modeling Biomod2 SAubmediterranean forests Forest management Conservation strategies |
| Ano: | 2025 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Tipo de documento: | artigo original |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | Universidade Politécnica de Castelo Branco |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Repositório Científico da Universidade Politécnica de Castelo Branco |
| Resumo: | Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaicaWilld., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change. |
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