Publicação
Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets
| Resumo: | What is the effect of elections on real assets? Can we measure the effect on price only observing one outcome? This dissertation attempts to estimate these effects using a methodology based in stock options. The model developed adapts the benchmark Black-Scholes model to incorporate two new parameters: a perfectly anticipated jump in price (∆) and a series of daily probabilities (Θ) reflecting beliefs about outcomes of the election. We apply this method to 2014 Brazilian Presidential Elections and Petrobras - an important oil company in Brazil - using market data from the second election round. The results found show 65-77% difference in company valuation, depending on election outcome. This is equivalent to approximately 2.5% of Brazil’s GDP in 2014. |
|---|---|
| Autores principais: | Carvalho, Augusto de Barros Lisboa de |
| Assunto: | Stock options Black-Scholes Economia PETROBRAS Eleições - Aspectos econômicos Presidentes - Brasil - Eleições Mercado financeiro - Brasil |
| Ano: | 2016 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Tipo de documento: | dissertação de mestrado |
| Tipo de acesso: | acesso aberto |
| Instituição associada: | IBICT |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Origem: | Oasisbr |
| Resumo: | What is the effect of elections on real assets? Can we measure the effect on price only observing one outcome? This dissertation attempts to estimate these effects using a methodology based in stock options. The model developed adapts the benchmark Black-Scholes model to incorporate two new parameters: a perfectly anticipated jump in price (∆) and a series of daily probabilities (Θ) reflecting beliefs about outcomes of the election. We apply this method to 2014 Brazilian Presidential Elections and Petrobras - an important oil company in Brazil - using market data from the second election round. The results found show 65-77% difference in company valuation, depending on election outcome. This is equivalent to approximately 2.5% of Brazil’s GDP in 2014. |
|---|
Atividades financiadas
Não foram encontrados projetos financiados.