Publication
Behavior biases in macroeconomic forecasts
| Summary: | This paper documents the optimism in the forecast of GDP and IPCA. That is, it shows that GDP forecasts are systematically higher than what actually happens, and IPCA projections are systematically lower. Then it tests whether there is an anti-herding bias related to a publicity hypothesis regarding institutional incentives for the behavior of professionals who make such forecasts. Finally, it verifies whether the revision of the forecast still carries the previously identified bias. The results confirm the existence of an optimistic bias in the GDP and IPCA projections and this bias remains in the following revisions for GDP. However, the publicity hypothesis seems to be not confirmed for the aggregated forecasts by types of institutions. |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | Nasser, Henry |
| Other Authors: | De-Losso, Rodrigo |
| Subject: | Vieses Projeções PIB Inflação Boletim Focus Biases Forecast GDP Inflation Boletim Focus |
| Year: | 2021 |
| Country: | Brazil |
| Document type: | article |
| Access type: | unknown |
| Associated institution: | IBICT |
| Language: | Portuguese |
| Origin: | Oasisbr |
| Summary: | This paper documents the optimism in the forecast of GDP and IPCA. That is, it shows that GDP forecasts are systematically higher than what actually happens, and IPCA projections are systematically lower. Then it tests whether there is an anti-herding bias related to a publicity hypothesis regarding institutional incentives for the behavior of professionals who make such forecasts. Finally, it verifies whether the revision of the forecast still carries the previously identified bias. The results confirm the existence of an optimistic bias in the GDP and IPCA projections and this bias remains in the following revisions for GDP. However, the publicity hypothesis seems to be not confirmed for the aggregated forecasts by types of institutions. |
|---|
Funded activities
No funded projects found.