This study analyzes the impact of tax structure on economic growth in the 27 Member States of the European Union, from 2010 to 2022. We use dynamic panel econometric models, namely Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models with instrumental variables, which allow us to address the dynamic nature of growth. Two economic growth equations were estimated; the first focuses on more classical determinants: public investment, education, health and innovation. The second on tax composition and institutional quality. The results show that workers with advanced education contribute positively to economic growth, consumption and capital taxes contribute positively to growth, while property taxes have a negative impact. This work offers a contribution to the European discussion to promote sustained economic growth and fiscal harmonization.

This article aims to identify a relation between changes in the base interest rate (SELIC), in Brazil, on inflation and GDP (Gross Domestic Product), as well as the degree of this relation. In monetary policy context, it is understood that a reduction in the interest rate implies an increase in productive activity and, on the other hand, a tendency towards an increase in inflation. In order to answer this question, Pearson's linear coefficient, which measures the degree of relationship between the variables under study, was used in addition to descriptive analysis. Therefore, it can be concluded that the variation in the interest rate has a greater relation to GDP and a lower relation with inflation.

Public Expenditures are expenses incurred by the Public Administration to meet the basic needs of society. The present work sought to analyze whether there is an impact of public spending on the economic growth of municipalities in the state of Amazonas during the years 2013 to 2019. The variables used were GDP, Health, Sanitation, Education, Culture, Urbanization and Housing. For this, panel analysis and correlation matrix were used. The model considered most appropriate for the use of panel data was the Fixed Effects model. The results obtained showed that investments in the variables Health and Sanitation and Urban Planning and Housing have a positive impact on GDP. However, the Education and Culture variable had an inverse effect on the municipal GDP during the period studied.

This paper documents the optimism in the forecast of GDP and IPCA. That is, it shows that GDP forecasts are systematically higher than what actually happens, and IPCA projections are systematically lower. Then it tests whether there is an anti-herding bias related to a publicity hypothesis regarding institutional incentives for the behavior of professionals who make such forecasts. Finally, it verifies whether the revision of the forecast still carries the previously identified bias. The results confirm the existence of an optimistic bias in the GDP and IPCA projections and this bias remains in the following revisions for GDP. However, the publicity hypothesis seems to be not confirmed for the aggregated forecasts by types of institutions.

One of the difficulties in testing the CAPM, as highlighted in the Roll's critique, is how to select a suitable market proxy. The literature has proposed a number of alternatives to the use of Stock Exchange Indices as a proxy for the Market Portfolio. All of them looked at a broader measure of assets which are not sold at Stock Exchanges. This paper follows Hou (2002) by testing the CAPM through a hypothetical aggregate portfolio that generates GDP as its dividend. The goal of the paper is to evaluate if the proxy proposed by Hou (2002) can be used as a good proxy for the market portfolio in Brazil. In addition, we compare the performance of the synthetic return proposed by Hou (2002) to the Ibovespa return, a very popular proxy for the market portfolio in empirical studies in Brazil. Results, especially the ones related to the Black version of the CAPM, show that the synthetic return measure is not mean-variance efficient for the full sample (1991-2002). In spite of not being able to meet all the requirements imposed by the CAPM model in all sub-samples, the Ibovespa return has a better performance compared to the synthetic return. In fact, it is mean-variance efficient for the full sample and for the majority of sub-samples.

De acordo com a experiência internacional, a importância da agropecuária no produto interno bruto (PIB) de um país apresenta tendência declinante ao longo do tempo. Isto tem ocorrido na maioria das nações, inclusive no Brasil no período de 1960 a 1993. Porém, a partir de meados dos anos 90 até 2004, o Brasil apresentou crescimento nessa variável, o qual não foi seguido pela maioria dos países sul-americanos. Este artigo analisa os fatores que explicam a participação da agropecuária no PIB brasileiro nos anos de 1986 a 2004 e a razão de seu crescimento a partir de meados da década de 90 até 2004. A metodologia utilizada é a organização dos dados publicados em gráficos e tabelas e a análise econométrica desses dados. Um modelo contábil foi desenvolvido para explicar os principais fatores que afetam a participação da agropecuária no PIB e um modelo econométrico foi adaptado para estimar este modelo contábil. Usando dados de 1986 a 2004, nossos resultados econométricos confirmam a mudança estrutural na curva de participação da agropecuária no PIB, e as principais variáveis explicando essa participação, no período de 1993 a 2004, são a produtividade da indústria, a razão preços recebidos/ preços pagos pela agropecuária, a produtividade da agropecuária e a participação defasada da agropecuária no PIB.

O artigo avalia, na estrutura do agronegócio brasileiro, a renda, o emprego, o consumo setorial de energia e as emissões de CO2. Para isso, estima uma matriz energética com 56 setores consumidores compatíveis com os 56 setores apresentados pela MIP do Brasil para 2009, o que permite mensurar o agronegócio em unidades econômicas e físicas. Verificouse que o agronegócio brasileiro responde por 21,26% do PIB, por 31,93% dos empregos, por 34,72% do consumo de energia e, por 40,96% das emissões de CO2. Os indicadores físico-econômicos assinalam que a intensidade do consumo de energia e as emissões de CO2 no agronegócio são maiores que a média nacional, em particular, destaca a agroindústria como o agregado que proporcionalmente emite mais CO2 no país por unidade monetária, por trabalhador e por consumo de energia. Contudo, verificou-se que a Agroindústria utiliza energia “limpa” (eletricidade com 11,14%) e majoritariamente renovável (Produtos da cana, Outras fontes primárias e Lenha com 80,53%)

This study aims to examine the effect of the macroeconomic variables on the stock market price index from Germany and Portugal, using the OLS regression model and quarterly data from 2000(Q1) to 2011(Q4). The group of the macroeconomic variables used in this study is composed by GDP, consumer price index, long term domestic interest rate, exchange rate, and by the ratio of government deficit, tax revenue, net lending or borrowing of an economy and gross fixed capital formation, to GDP. In addition to the macroeconomic variables presented, we also consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average price index and the US long term interest rate. Considering all the explanatory variables on the regression model, we found that both stock markets analyzed are positively influenced by Dow Jones return and US long term interest rate change, and negatively affected by the depreciation of the exchange rate. Germany stock return is positively affected by the domestic long run interest rate change. In regards to the Portugal stock return, it is positively influenced by the GDP growth rate and negatively affected by the growth rate of the consumer price index. Concerning the policy implication, to promote a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to manage the domestic interest rate, pursue or sustain the economic growth, the currency appreciation, a low inflation rate and monitor the external factor.

A Procura Interna representa um papel essencial na economia como motor de crescimento do nível de produção de bens e serviços de qualquer país. Para Portugal, dada a forte dimensão do Consumo Privado, essa influência na produção é ainda mais notória. Dessa forma, para melhor descrever a economia nacional é fundamental estabelecer as relações inter-dinâmicas entre Consumo, Investimento e PIB, para que os agentes económicos sejam capazes de antecipar mudanças e dessa forma ajustar as suas decisões. Como tal, com recurso a dados trimestrais compreendidos entre o 1º trimestre de 1999 e o 4º trimestre de 2018, o presente estudo procedeu à estimação de um modelo Vetorial Autorregressivo (VAR) que permitiu identificar o forte impacto das duas componentes da Procura Interna na Produção de bens e serviços e um efeito não tão marcado no sentido inverso. Para além disso, através dos resultados obtidos pelo do modelo VAR estimado foi ainda possível identificar que face a um choque exógeno em qualquer uma das variáveis do sistema, as respostas das outras variáveis aparentam não se prolongar por períodos superiores a um ano. Contudo, apesar do forte poder explicativo, do ponto de vista das previsões a abordagem com recurso ao modelo vetorial não se revelou superior face a outros modelos de implementação mais simples.