This paper addresses the themes of forecasting and conservatism in the context of the current economic crisis and its impact in Portugal since 2008. The theme of the forecasts is presented through a metaphor, using the principles of chaos theory and of Edward Lorenz’s butterfly effect, usually applied in weather forecasting, to illustrate the economic and financial crisis in Portugal. The theme of conservatism is presented through an analogy with the thinking of Kuhn. Metaphor shows that the economic and financial forecasts fail, often in anticipation of a crisis, among other aspects, due to errors in the assessment and diagnosis of the problem because of the difficulty in identifying and understanding the often-complex signs and evidence. As for conservatism, analogy with the thinking of Kuhn illuminates resistance to change -- the denial of inconvenient facts for the careers of analysts and decision makers and persistence in following the model because of difficulty in answering for paradigmatic errors.

The aims of the present study were to assess critical velocity using the swimmer curriculum in front crawl events and to compare critical velocity to the velocity corresponding to a 4 mmol·l(-1) of blood lactate concentration and to the velocity of a 30 min test. The sample included 24 high level male swimmers ranged between 14 and 16 years old. For each subject the critical velocity, the velocity corresponding to a 4 mmol·l(-1) of blood lactate concentration and the mean velocity of a 30 min test were determined. The critical velocity was also estimated by considering the best performance of a swimmer over several distances based on the swimmer curriculum. Critical velocity including 100, 200 and 400 m events was not different from the velocity of 4 mmol·l(-1) of blood lactate concentration. Critical velocity including all the swimmer events was not different from the velocity of a 30 min test. The assessment of critical velocity based upon the swimmer curriculum would therefore seem to be a good approach to determine the aerobic ability of a swimmer. The selection of the events to be included in critical velocity assessment must be a main concern in the evaluation of the swimmer. Key pointsCritical velocity using 100, 200 and 400 m events was not different from the velocity of 4 mmol·l(-1) of blood lactate concentration.Critical velocity using all the swimmer events was not different from the velocity of a 30 min test.The assessment of critical velocity based upon the swimmer curriculum seemed to be a good approach to determine the aerobic capacity of a swimmer.The decision on the events to be analysed must be a main concern in the evaluation of the swimmer critical velocity.

This study was conducted to determine the effect of warm-up on high-intensity front crawl tethered swimming and thus to better understand possible variations in the force exerted by the swimmers. Ten male national level swimmers (mean ± SD; age 15.3 ± 0.95 years old, height: 1.73 ± 5.2 m, body mass: 64.3 ± 7.8 kg, Fat mass 8.31 ± 3.1 kg) participated in this study. After a typical competition warm-up, the subjects performed a 30 s tethered swimming all-out effort in front crawl swimming technique. The same test was repeated in the day after but performed without warming up. Capillary blood lactate concentration was assessed before and after the swimming test and the Borg ratings of perceived exertion scale was used. Without a previous warm-up, the mean ± SD values of maximum and mean forces were 299.62 ± 77.56 N and 91.65 ± 14.70 N, respectively. These values were different (p<0.05) from the values obtained with warm-up (351.33 ± 81.85 N and 103.97 ± 19.11 N). Differences were also observed when regarding to the forces relative to body mass. However, the values of lactate net concentrations after the test performed with and without warm-up were not different (6.27 ± 2.36 mmol·l(-1) and 6.18 ± 2.353 mmol·l (-1)) and the same occurs with the values of ratings of perceived exertion (15.90 ± 2.42 and 15.60 ± 2.27). These results suggest an improvement of the maximum and mean force of the swimmer on the tethered swimming due to previous warm-up.

Historical buildings, such as vernacular architecture typologies, have been threatened by the vulnerability to their status degradation. This problem is not an exception in Portugal, where the few remaining examples of wooden stilt-houses, along Tagus river banks, have been neglected, with the disappearance or abandonment of almost all buildings, weakening the European cultural map. In Europe has been observed a growing concern in order to develop methods, tools and instruments for the management of current buildings stock, especially focused on housing, in order to improve their performances. However, these methods are don’t fit in the features of traditional buildings such as wooden houses of vernacular architecture. In this sense, this research presents the detailed methodology used for the creation of an ICT (information and communication technology) method, especially designed for the evaluation of status of historical buildings conservation. It is focused on the explanation of its two main tools: the diagnosis record and the software. The results are an exhaustive survey of buildings features, useful as guideline for spatial planning strategies and instruments to protect this legacy. The proposed ICT method can be used in other similar buildings, and therefore to define best rehabilitation actions.

to identify the factors which are able to explain the performance in the 200 meters individual medley and 400 meters front crawl events in young swimmers, to model the performance in those events using non-linear mathematic methods through artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons) and to assess the neural network models precision to predict the performance. A sample of 138 young swimmers (65 males and 73 females) of national level was submitted to a test battery comprising four different domains: kinanthropometric evaluation, dry land functional evaluation (strength and flexibility), swimming functional evaluation (hydrodynamics, hydrostatic and bioenergetics characteristics) and swimming technique evaluation. To establish a profile of the young swimmer non-linear combinations between preponderant variables for each gender and swim performance in the 200 meters medley and 400 meters font crawl events were developed. For this purpose a feed forward neural network was used (Multilayer Perceptron) with three neurons in a single hidden layer. The prognosis precision of the model (error lower than 0.8% between true and estimated performances) is supported by recent evidence. Therefore, we consider that the neural network tool can be a good approach in the resolution of complex problems such as performance modeling and the talent identification in swimming and, possibly, in a wide variety of sports. Key pointsThe non-linear analysis resulting from the use of feed forward neural network allowed us the development of four performance models.The mean difference between the true and estimated results performed by each one of the four neural network models constructed was low.The neural network tool can be a good approach in the resolution of the performance modeling as an alternative to the standard statistical models that presume well-defined distributions and independence among all inputs.The use of neural networks for sports sciences application allowed us to create very realistic models for swimming performance prediction based on previous selected criterions that were related with the dependent variable (performance).

Mobile biometrics technologies are nowadays the new frontier for secure use of data and services, and are considered particularly important due to the massive use of handheld devices in the entire world. Among the biometric traits with potential to be used in mobile settings, the iris/ocular region is a natural can- didate, even considering that further advances in the technology are required to meet the operational requirements of such ambitious environments. Aiming at promoting these advances, we organized the Mobile Iris Challenge Evaluation (MICHE)-I contest. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the participant methods by various Figures of Merit (FoMs). A particular at- tention is devoted to the identification of the image covariates that are likely to cause a decrease in the performance levels of the compared algorithms. Among these factors, interoperability among different devices plays an important role. The methods (or parts of them) implemented by the analyzed approaches are classified into segmentation (S), which was the main target of MICHE-I, and recognition (R). The paper reports both the results observed for either S or R, and also for different recombinations (S+R) of such methods. Last but not least, we also present the results obtained by multi-classifier strategies.

The aim of this research was to develop a path-flow analysis model to highlight the relationships between buoyancy and prone gliding tests and some selected anthropometrical and biomechanical variables. Thirty-eight young male swimmers (12.97 ± 1.05 years old) with several competitive levels were evaluated. It were assessed the body mass, height, fat mass, body surface area, vertical buoyancy, prone gliding after wall push-off, stroke length, stroke frequency and velocity after a maximal 25 [m] swim. The confirmatory model included the body mass, height, fat mass, prone gliding test, stroke length, stroke frequency and velocity. All theoretical paths were verified except for the vertical buoyancy test that did not present any relationship with anthropometrical and biomechanical variables nor with the prone gliding test. The good-of-fit from the confirmatory path-flow model, assessed with the standardized root mean square residuals (SRMR), is considered as being close to the cut-off value, but even so not suitable of the theory (SRMR = 0.11). As a conclusion, vertical buoyancy and prone gliding tests are not the best techniques to assess the swimmer's hydrostatic and hydrodynamic profile, respectively.

The present study aimed to examine the effects of using static or dynamic stretching added to the common warm-up routine for short sprint distances and to repeated sprint performance. In 3 different sessions, 16 college-age men (n = 10) and women (n = 6) performed one of 3 warm-ups followed by a 2 × 60 m dash sprint time trial (5 min of rest) in a counterbalanced design. The control warm-up consisted of 10 min of light-intensity running, and the 2 experimental warm-ups included a static or dynamic stretching routine (5 exercises) in the control warm-up. Performance (time) and physiological variables (tympanic temperature, heart rate) were monitored. In the first 60 m time trial, there were no differences between the 3 warmups tested (F = 0.21, p = 0.73; ηp 2 = 0.01), as opposed to that observed in the second (F = 7.04, p < 0.01; ηp 2 = 0.32). The participants were 1.7 % faster after the static stretching warm-up compared with the control warm-up. The sum of the time performed in the 2 sprints emphasizes these results, with better performances after the static stretching warm-up than the control (1 %) or dynamic stretching warm-up (0.7 %). These results suggest that including a set of static or dynamic stretching exercises may enhance sprinting performance. The better performance in the second trial after the warm-up including static stretching suggests that this type of stretching may positively influence repeated sprint performance ( < 10 s sprint).

A investigação centrada nos árbitros tem sido pouca ou escassa, sendo praticamente inexistente na arbitragem de kumite em Karate. O presente estudo teve como objetivo, caracterizar o desempenho dos árbitros de Karate, na competição de kumite, quanto à sua validade, e ainda à fidelidade intra-observador e à fidelidade inter-observador. A presente investigação assentou na observação, por parte de árbitros de Karate da FPKS, de um combate de Karate com a duração de 2 minutos. Desse combate foi realizado um vídeo com a duração de 8 minutos que reproduzia o combate observado quer da posição do árbitro, quer da posição de cada um dos juízes. A recolha de dados foi efetuada em dois momentos, o primeiro com vista a analisar a validade e a fidelidade inter-observador e o segundo momento, com um intervalo mínimo de 60 dias para verificarmos a fidelidade intra-observador. Para a análise da validade foi constituída uma comissão de peritos, com o propósito de se obter uma medida critério. A observação do vídeo por parte da amostra foi feita individualmente pelos árbitros, em ambiente fechado, através do software Match Vision Studio, em que se fez o registo da observação. Utilizámos o índice de Bellack, para aferir a fidelidade intra e inter-observador e a validade. Aceitando-se um resultado igual ou superior a 80% como garante da fidelidade (Aranha, 2007, Siedentop, 1983). Foi utilizado o Qui-Quadrado para verificar se havia diferenças significativas na validade entre árbitros nacionais e regionais e em função da posição de observação (árbitro ou juiz). Os valores da fidelidade intra-observador (78,7%) e inter-observador (77,2%) estão próximos, o que nos diz que a variabilidade encontrada entre os diversos árbitros não é superior às variações que ocorrem num mesmo árbitro em dois momentos distintos. A validade, é baixa (72,2%), parecendo-nos existir uma diferença de critérios de avaliação entre os peritos e os árbitros, o que se deverá conseguir melhorar com formação específica na melhoria da uniformização dos critérios de decisão. Não encontrámos diferenças significativas entre as duas categorias de árbitros, nacionais e regionais, quer para a fidelidade intra-observador quer para a fidelidade inter-observador. No que se refere à validade, encontrámos uma diferença significativa (3,4%, Sig 0,004) entre os árbitros nacionais e aos árbitros regionais, sendo esta mais alta para os primeiros. A diferença entre o árbitro e os juízes, é significativa quer para a fidelidade intra-observador (9,9 %, Sig 0,002), quer para a validade (9,8%, Sig 0,004), sendo mais alta para os juízes. Podemos concluir que a validade esteve sempre mais baixa do que a fidelidade intra-observador e a fidelidade inter-observador, o que denota uma divergência de critérios de avaliação entre os árbitros e os peritos. A falta de fidelidade intra-observador parece ser a principal condicionante para um melhor desempenho.

Abstract An investigation centered on referees has been relatively scarce or non-existent, particularly in regards to refereeing Kumite in Karate. The present study’s objective was to characterize Karate referees’ performance in a Kumite match along with its validity, as well as the intra and inter-observer reliability. This current investigation focused on observations made by Karate referees belonging to the FPKS and entailed a Karate match that lasted two minutes. Based on that match a eight minute video was put together, where it can be seen from the perspective and position of both the referee and each one of the judges. The data was collected during two different periods of time. The first data collected was to analyse the inter-observer’s reliability and the validity. The second data collection took place within a minimum sixty day interval, in order to verify the intra-observer’s reliability. In order to analyse the validity, a group of experts was commissioned with the purpose of putting together criteria of measure. A sample part of the video was observed individually by the referees, in a closed environment setting and documented with the use of the Match Vision Studio software. The Bellack Index was used to assess the intra and inter-observer’s reliability and validity, therefore accepting a result equal or superior to eighty percent as the guarantor of reliability (Aranha, 2007, Siedentop, 1983). The chi-squared test was used to verify if there were any significant differences in the validity between national and regional referees, as well as, in accordance with the position of the observation (referee or judge). The reliability results were (78,7%) and (77,2%) for the intra-observer and the inter-observer reliability, respectively. The results are in close proximity to each other and one can conclude that the variability between the various referees is not greater than the variations that occur in the same referee at two different periods of time. The validity is low (72,2%), seemingly there is a difference in the assessment criteria between the experts and the referees. This should be improved with the aid of specialised training, in order to better the uniformity of decision criteria. In both the intra and inter-observer’s reliability, no significant differences were found between the national and regional referees. A significant difference of (3,4%, Sig 0,004) was found between the national and regional referees regarding validity, and being even higher for the national referees. The difference between referees and judges is significant when it comes to the intra-observer’s reliability which was (9,9% Sig 0,002) and (9,8%, Sig 0,004) for validity, with the judges being even higher. A conclusion can be made that validity was always lower than the intra and inter-observer’s reliability, which denotes a divergence in the assessment criteria between referees and experts. The lack of the intra-observer’s reliability seems to be a major constraining factor for a better performance.