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1
Climate change in a mingling-state: sea level rise confronts social susceptibility and justice in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh
Publicationby Ashrafuzzaman, Md.Shyamnagar Upazila, within the Southwestern part of Bangladesh encompassing the entire Sundarbans, is located in the deltas of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Megna rivers in the Bay of Bengal and is an area extremely vulnerable to climate change, with serious consequences at the socioeconomic level. This doctoral research involved collecting data on physical, hydrological, geographical aspects, land cover change, rainfall changing patterns, water and soil trace elements, and tidal gauges. These data were complemented with the analysis of social and economic vulnerability dimensions through qualitative methods (interviews, focus groups and observation). Qualitative data collection techniques, including focus group discussions (FGDs), case studies, PRA (Participatory rural appraisal) questionnaires, workshops, in-depth interviews, key informant interviews and participant observation, was undertaken in the Shyamnagar Upazila from 2017 to 2019 (through Skype + messenger + over telephone 2020 to 2022). A survey with a close ended questionnaire was applied at the first stage in nine unions (series-based analysis), at the second stage in 12 unions (risk, hazards, vulnerability and adaptation analysis) and at a third stage in 3 unions (safe drinking water and health analysis) with a total of (320 +387 +1579) household samples (n = 2286). Sea level rise has negative impacts on agriculture, riverbank erosion, and salinity, loss of natural ecosystems, gender vulnerability, poverty, food security, fisheries, safe water resources, migration, and public health factors that affect the development of SWCRB populations and cause climate injustices. This thesis analyzed the implications of coastal risks and hazards to the vulnerability of the local populations, while also addressing their perceptions of justice and adaptation strategies. -
2
Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands
Publicationby Vizinho, AndréOther Authors: Avelar, David; Fonseca, Ana Lúcia; Carvalho, S.C.P.; Sucena-Paiva, Leonor; Pinho, Pedro et al.Adaptation Pathways is a decision support tool designed to create adaptation policies under different climate change scenarios. This tool has been used successfully in several sectors and contexts such as coastal and river adaptation, urban heat waves, floods and rural livelihoods but its use in natural resource management, has faced several challenges and limitations. In the sector of agroforestry its use has seldom been done or documented and one of the reasons for this may due to some of its specific challenges. In this study, these challenges were addressed when using the Adaptation Pathways for the adaptation planning of three case studies in the semi-arid Alentejo region, a Mediterranean dryland of southern Portugal. This tool was integrated in a participatory approach combined with the Scenario Workshop method, to plan the adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sector of one municipality (Mértola) and two agroforestry farms (221 ha and 1000 ha). The methodology included, for each case study, 20 interviews, two workshops, literature review, expert analysis and the use of indicators of efficacy of adaptation measures, to define tipping points. The adaptation process and the resulting adaptation plans were evaluated by questionnaire and expert review. This combination of methods has supported the choice of effective adaptation measures for the case studies and when combined with several adaptation pathways and a landscape approach it supported the creation of integrated climate change adaptation plans that are now in implementation. We discuss how this combination of methods deals with limitation to Adaptation Pathways identified in the literature, conclude that the method was able to create adaptation plans that are now under implementation and present avenues for future research. -
3
Social acceptance of water reuse from policy instruments - the case of Lisbon
Publicationby Conceição, MarcellaOther Authors: Gomes, Carla; Schmidt, LuísaClimate change has been imperative in the changes that have taken place on the planet in recent decades, affecting various resources, including water. Droughts have become a reality in many places, particularly in southern Europe, where previously unaffected areas now face the threat of water scarcity. To deal with this situation, Europe, and more specifically Portugal, has adopted water reuse to promote adaptation and mitigate the effects of climate change. However, challenges related to the acceptance of water reuse by the community may hinder its evolution. This article investigates the social acceptance of water reuse in Lisbon, in the context of the national and EU regulatory frameworks. Policy instruments were analysed to identify the main factors influencing social acceptance in the official documents governing the practice. Based on the conceptual foundations of social acceptance, the analysis reveals three key domains that significantly shape reuse practices, thus necessitating differentiated strategies to overcome the challenges. These include the dynamics of risk perception and cost considerations, along with the imperative of robust stakeholder engagement, which is essential to promote equitable decision-making through collaborative work. In addition, transparency and public participation emerge as key elements indispensable for generating trust in water reuse. Through effective communication modalities and targeted awareness campaigns, we emphasise the fundamental role of ensuring public understanding of the benefits and risk mitigation strategies. While existing regulatory frameworks partially meet these demands, it is important that they are improved to fully respond to the challenges that hinder the widespread acceptance of water reuse schemes. -
4
Nature-Based Solutions for Water Management in Europe: What Works, What Does Not, and What’s Next?
Publicationby Santos, EleonoraOrigin: IC-onlineNature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as strategic alternatives and complements to grey infrastructure for addressing water-related challenges in the context of climate change, urbanization, and biodiversity decline. This article presents a critical, theory-informed review of the state of NbS implementation in European water management, drawing on a structured synthesis of empirical evidence from regional case studies and policy frameworks. The analysis found that while NbS are effective in reducing surface runoff, mitigating floods, and improving water quality under low- to moderate-intensity events, their performance remains uncertain under extreme climate scenarios. Key gaps identified include the lack of long-term monitoring data, limited assessment of NbS under future climate conditions, and weak integration into mainstream planning and financing systems. Existing evaluation frameworks are critiqued for treating NbS as static interventions, overlooking their ecological dynamics and temporal variability. In response, a dynamic, climate-resilient assessment model is proposed—grounded in systems thinking, backcasting, and participatory scenario planning—to evaluate NbS adaptively. Emerging innovations, such as hybrid green–grey infrastructure, adaptive governance models, and novel financing mechanisms, are highlighted as key enablers for scaling NbS. The article contributes to the scientific literature by bridging theoretical and empirical insights, offering region-specific findings and recommendations based on a comparative analysis across diverse European contexts. These findings provide conceptual and methodological tools to better design, evaluate, and scale NbS for transformative, equitable, and climate-resilient water governance. -
5
Thirst for Change in Water Governance: Overcoming Challenges for Drought Resilience in Southern Europe
Publicationby Santos, EleonoraOrigin: IC-onlineThis article investigates the institutional and informational foundations of water governance in Southern Europe amid escalating climate stress. Focusing on Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece, it develops a multi-level analytical framework to explore how information asymmetries and governance fragmentation undermine coordinated responses to water scarcity. Integrating theories of information economics, polycentric governance, and critical institutionalism, this study applies a stylized economic model and comparative institutional analysis to assess how agents—such as farmers, utilities, regulators, and civil society—respond to varying incentives, data access, and coordination structures. Using secondary data, normalized indicators, and scenario-based simulations, the model identifies three key structural parameters—institutional friction (θi), information cost (βi), and incentive strength (αi)—as levers for governance reform. The simulations are stylized and not empirically calibrated, serving as heuristic tools rather than predictive forecasts. The results show that isolated interventions yield limited improvements, while combined reforms significantly enhance both equity and effectiveness. Climate stress simulations further reveal stark differences in institutional resilience, with Greece and Italy showing systemic fragility and Portugal emerging as comparatively robust. This study contributes a flexible, policy-relevant tool for diagnosing governance capacity and informing reform strategies while also underscoring the need for integrated, equity-oriented approaches to adaptive water governance. -
6
Towards climate adaptation: a case study of a Coastal City in Portugal
Publicationby Aelenei, Laura ElenaOther Authors: Viana, Susana; Simões, Teresa; Amorim, Filipa; Simoes, Sofia; Barbosa, Juliana Pacheco et al.Origin: Repositório do LNEGABSTRACT: The present study focuses on the use of complementary numerical tools to support the development of a climate neutrality roadmap for Cascais, a coastal Portuguese city and one of the nine pilot cities in the Re-Value project. The results contribute to refining the roadmap and updating Cascais' long-term Territorial Transformation Plans to accelerate its journey to climate neutrality by 2050. For this, a spatial analysis was conducted to assess the potential for rooftop solar PV, onshore wind energy, and wave energy along the coastline. Additionally, an innovative and simplified Decision Support Tool (DST) was developed to support municipalities in the development of their climate neutrality roadmaps and was used in the design of the scenarios and trajectories, which are now being integrated into the climate neutrality roadmap for Cascais. The DST tool results show that in the High Development scenario, when compared with the reference year of 2019, the total final energy demand can decrease by 7.2 % in 2050 due to the implementation of energy efficiency measures following the concept "Energy Efficiency First" and along with the increase of electrification, the introduction of hydrogen in the transport sector, and a broader implementation of renewable energy in the urban fabric and public spaces, Green House Gas (GHG) emissions can decrease by 82 % in 2050. -
7
European patterns of local adaptation planning : a regional analysis
Publicationby Buzási, AttilaOther Authors: Simoes, Sofia; Salvia, Monica; Eckersley, Peter; Geneletti, Davide; Pietrapertosa, Filomena et al.Origin: Repositório do LNEGABSTRACT: While European regions face a range of different climate hazards, little is known about how these differences affect local climate adaptation planning. We present an analytical framework for evaluating local climate adaptation plans (LCAPs) and apply it to 327 cities in 28 countries across different European regions. To do this, we use statistical methods to identify regional clusters based on overall plan quality, impacts, vulnerable population groups, and sectors addressed by LCAPs. By comparing both geographic and statistical clusters, we found (1) significant spatial heterogeneity across European cities but (2) higher average plan quality scores and more consistent strategies across cities in Central and Eastern Europe. Notably, we found no regional differences regarding (a) the climate impacts and vulnerable communities identified in plans: (b) the most commonly addressed impacts, which were urban temperature and changing precipitation patterns; and (c) the residents that cities identified as most vulnerable, namely older people, women, infants, and the sick. Our study provides a spatial analysis of European LCAPs to uncover regional policy perspectives on local climate adaptation issues. Such approaches can effectively inform broader EU, national and regional strategies that aim to support local adaptation planning in a context of multi-level governance. -
8
Towards climate adaptation: a case study of a Coastal City in Portugal
Publicationby Aelenei, Laura ElenaOther Authors: Viana, Susana; Simões, Teresa; Amorim, Filipa; Simoes, Sofia; Barbosa, Juliana et al.Origin: Repositório do LNEGABSTRACT: The importance of climate-neutral and smart cities was addressed by the European Commission (EU) through the financing program EU Missions, as a response to the urban and energy challenges to promote innovative solutions and strategies and to deliver tangible results by 2050. To manifest their Expressions of Interest to join the EU Cities Mission, several cities across Europe applied for funding to support their local action plans toward reaching climate neutrality by 2030/2050. One example is the research European project Re-Value focusing on waterfront cities and aiming to transform the waterfront cities zones from a risk to an opportunity, through a New European Bauhaus (NEB) inspired value and impact model that allows urban transformation strategies to value quality and other non-monetary benefits in addition to (only) pricing and GHG emission reductions. This paper presents the results of the preliminary analysis developed in one of the 9 cities of the project, Cascais, located on the Portuguese coast. The results will contribute to a detailed roadmap actions and update of the Cascais long-term Territorial Transformation Plans to accelerate its journey to climate neutrality by 2050. As one of Cascais ambitions and main point of the developing roadmap is the adoption of the decentralised renewable energy generation, a spatial analysis of the potential for wind energy and solar PV energy in rooftops along with the wave energy potential assessment along the coast was done. In addition, a Decision Support Tool (DST) using the most relevant Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for energy transition was used, to support Cascais implementation of the measures that will have the highest impact in inhabitant’s lives. The tool enables to evaluate how KPI’s from different sectors will evolve considering three different socioeconomic development scenarios. -
9
Deciphering the variation in cuticular hydrocarbon profiles of six European honey bee subspecies
Publicationby Rodríguez-León, Daniel SebastiánOther Authors: Uzunov, Aleksandar; Costa, Cecilia; Elen, Dylan; Charistos, Leonidas; Galea, Thomas et al.Origin: Biblioteca Digital da UPBThe Western honey bee (Apis mellifera) subspecies exhibit local adaptive traits that evolved in response to the different environments that characterize their native distribution ranges. An important trait is the cuticular hydrocarbon (CHC) profile, which helps to prevent desiccation and mediate communication. We compared the CHC profiles of six European subspecies (A. m. mellifera, A. m. carnica, A. m. ligustica, A. m. macedonica, A. m. iberiensis, and A. m. ruttneri) and investigated potential factors shaping their composition. We did not find evidence of adaptation of the CHC profiles of the subspecies to the climatic conditions in their distribution range. Subspecies-specific differences in CHC composition might be explained by phylogenetic constraints or genetic drift. The CHC profiles of foragers were more subspecies-specific than those of nurse bees, while the latter showed more variation in their CHC profiles, likely due to the lower desiccation stress exerted by the controlled environment inside the hive. The strongest profile differences appeared between nurse bees and foragers among all subspecies, suggesting an adaptation to social task and a role in communication. Foragers also showed an increase in the relative amount of alkanes in their profiles compared to nurses, indicating adaptation to climatic conditions. -
10
Beekeeping in Europe facing climate change: a mixed methods study on perceived impacts and the need to adapt according to stakeholders and beekeepers
Publicationby Van Espen, MarieOther Authors: Williams, James H.; Alves, Fátima; Hung, Yung; Graaf, Dirk C. de; Verbeke, WimThe beekeeping sector is suffering from the detrimental effects of climate change, both directly and indirectly. Despite numerous studies conducted on this subject, large-scale research incorporating stakeholders' and beekeepers' perspectives has remained elusive. This study aims to bridge this gap by assessing the extent to which stakeholders involved in the European beekeeping sector and European beekeepers perceive and experience the impacts of climate change on their operations, and whether they had to adapt their practices accordingly. To this end, a mixed-methods study including in-depth stakeholder interviews (n = 41) and a pan-European beekeeper survey (n = 844) was completed within the frame of the EU-funded H2020-project B-GOOD. The development of the beekeeper survey was informed by insights from literature and the stakeholder interviews. The results highlighted significant regional disparities in the perceived impacts of climate change, with beekeepers in Southern European regions expressing more negative outlooks, while Northern European beekeepers reported more favourable experiences. Furthermore, survey analysis revealed beekeepers who were classified as ‘heavily impacted’ by climate change. These beekeepers reported lower average honey yields, higher colony winter loss rates and a stronger perceived contribution of honey bees to pollination and biodiversity, underscoring climate change's detrimental impacts on the beekeeping sector. Multinomial logistic regression revealed determinants of the likelihood of beekeepers being classified as ‘heavily impacted’ by climate change. This analysis indicates that Southern European beekeepers experienced a 10-fold likelihood of being classified as heavily impacted by climate change compared to Northern European beekeepers. Other significant factors distinguishing ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ were self-reported level of professionalism as a beekeeper (ranging from pure hobbyist to fully professional, Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.31), number of years active in beekeeping (OR = 1.02), availability of floral resources throughout the bee season (OR = 0.78), beehives located in a forested environment (OR = 1.34), and the presence of local policy measures addressing climate change-related challenges (OR = 0.76).
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